For a detailed explanation of the methodology of scenario analysis and climate risk providers, see Taming the Green Swan (2020) by Julia Anna Bingler and Chiara Colesanti Senni. 

Free tools 

For equity and fixed income investments 

2 Degrees Investing Initiative’s Paris Agreement Capital Transition Assessment (PACTA)  

Covers bond and equity issuers to analyze the alignment of portfolios with decarbonization pathways.  Gathers evidence based on the five-year-ahead time horizon for which it is possible to track capital expenditures, which are a key input to the model.  Developed in collaboration with PRI and free to the public. 

https://2degrees-investing.org/resource/pacta/ 

Climafin 

Analyzes large datasets regarding financial and industrial relationships using financial network algorithms, in order to estimate expected losses, value at risk, and other climate-adjusted financial metrics for portfolios under a range of climate scenarios.  A free model with individual analyses customizable for a fee. 

https://climafin.com 

Cambridge Econometrics 

Projects prices, emissions, and energy usage at the sectoral level under different climate scenarios. A free model with individual analyses customizable for a fee. 

https://www.camecon.com 

Transition Pathways Initiative 

Assesses management quality, carbon performance, and transition readiness of issuers.  Developed in collaboration with PRI and FTSE Russell and free to the public. 

https://transitionpathwayinitiative.org/overview 

University of Augsburg’s CARIMA 

Develops “carbon betas,” climate-adjusted measures of price volatility relative to the market, for securities across the economy under different scenarios.  Free and accessible to the public. 

https://www.uni-augsburg.de/de/forschung/einrichtungen/institute/jfz/forschung/forschungsprojekte/gesellschaftliche-transformationsprozesse/carbon-risk-management-carima/ 

For infrastructure assets 

ClimateWise  

Assesses financial risk to infrastructure assets, including fossil fuel pipelines and utilities, under different climate scenarios.  Produced by the University of Cambridge’s Institute for Sustainability Leadership; free to the public. 

https://www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/business-action/sustainable-finance/climatewise 

Commercial Tools 

For equity and fixed income assets 

Climate Risk Toolkit 

Estimates potential variation in valuation of assets under a range of climate scenarios.  Developed by Vivid Economics and available for a fee, though some data is public. 

https://www.vivideconomics.com/net-zero-toolkit/ 

Carbon Impact Analytics  

Assesses transition readiness, strategic orientation, and emissions at the firm level under a variety of climate scenarios. Developed by Carbone4. Both public and for-fee options. 

https://www.carbone4.com 

Carbon Delta—Climate VAR 

Estimates potential climate-stressed valuations of securities under different scenarios. Developed by MSCI with input from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Available for a fee, though some information is publicly available. 

https://www.msci.com/documents/1296102/16985724/MSCI-ClimateVaR-Introduction-Feb2020.pdf 

Climate Excellence 

Assessment of issuer-level changes in earnings and other financial metrics under a range of potential climate scenarios. Developed by PricewaterhouseCoopers and available for a fee, though some information is publicly available. 

https://store.pwc.de/en/products/climate-excellence 

ERM 

Portfolio screening for financial impact of physical and transition risk under a range of scenarios.  Available on a for-fee basis. 

https://www.erm.com/service/capabilities/energy-climate-change/ 

Moody’s ESG

Issuer-level assessments of exposure to physical and transition risk, as well as climate governance.  (Successor entity to Four Twenty Seven.)  Fee-based. 

https://esg.moodys.io/climate-solutions 

Ortec Finance Climate Maps 

Estimates macroeconomic variables such as inflation and growth rates, as well as asset class returns, for a variety of climate scenarios. 

Developed by Ortec Finance in partnership with Cambridge Econometrics, and available for a fee. 

https://www.ortecfinance.com/en/insights/product/climate-maps 

Portfolio Climate Impact Report and Raw Data  

Covers bond and equity portfolios, assessing issuer alignment with a 2-degree scenario as well as carbon emissions, and assigning a carbon risk rating based on industry-specific indicators. Developed by ISS ESG and available for a fee, though some information is publicly available. 

https://www.issgovernance.com/esg/climate-solutions/climate-analytics/ 

S&P Global Market Intelligence - Climate Linked Credit Analytics  

Separate tools estimate 1) the potential impact of a carbon tax on the upstream oil and gas sector and 2) creditworthiness of companies across the economy based on their projected carbon emissions and a range of climate scenarios.  Available for a fee although some data is public. 

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/solutions/climate-credit-analytics 

XDC Model 

Assesses climate impact of a company or portfolio in terms of average temperature rise by 2050 if all economy was as carbon intensive as this entity. Available for a fee, though some information is publicly available. 

https://www.right-basedonscience.de/en/right-based-on-science/ 

For corporate loans 

Climate Transition Risk Methodology/Transition Check 

Estimates the potential climate-related impacts on the credit risk of a bank’s corporate loan portfolio.  Developed by Oliver Wyman in collaboration with UNEP-FI, and available for a fee. 

https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2020/sep/transition-check.html