The Inevitable Policy Response to climate change

What makes IPR distinct from other scenarios:

IPR scenarios are designed to provide a market view around which financial institutions can base their central expectations. IPR is driven by a detailed assessment of likely policy trajectories in the short and long term, grounded in transparent views on major policy areas across all major countries/regions.

  • This in contrast to ‘hypothetical’ scenarios based on a temperature constraint or on assuming stated commitments are met.
  • IPR is transparent about the policy expectations so that financial institutions can understand the specific views that drive the scenarios.
  • IPR takes into account critical technology and market forces that facilitate policy shifts and that are accelerated by policy shifts.
  • As a result of this, IPR also provides a more realistic short-term trajectory and a well-grounded view of the shape of the transition over time.

What does IPR produce ?

The most extensive set of publicly available scenarios and underlying investor value drivers. This enables financial institutions to assess the risks and opportunities across the major sectors impacted by climate transition.

It also enables financial institutions to assess with greater granularity decisions about climate risk management and net zero alignment.

Energy, systems and land use

Apart from energy systems much of the detailed scenario analysis is related to food and land-use systems. IPR looks at the land-use related transition more thoroughly than other scenarios, including the extent of possible dietary shifts, the development of bioenergy, and the emergence of nature-based solutions (NBS).

Investor Value

By providing both the Forecast Policy Scenario (FPS), our most likely scenario and the Required Policy Scenario (RPS) our 1.5-degree scenario, IPR enables financial institutions to consistently assess:

  • a forecast scenario for a risk and return central case (FPS)
  • a full 1.5-degree net zero pathway (RPS) that:
    • investors could choose to align to, and
    • can be used as a stress test
“This is a flagship project for the PRI, I urge all signatories to assess the implications of the Inevitable Policy Response for their portfolios and act now to protect and enhance value”
- Fiona Reynolds, former CEO, PRI

Quarterly Forecast Tracker

Building on the October 2021 IPR 1.8C Forecast Policy Scenario ( FPS ) and 1.5 degree Required Policy Scenario ( RPS) policy suite, in 2022 IPR is issuing Quarterly Forecast Trackers (QFTs) assessing climate policy, technology and land use developments and acceleration or deceleration in policy ambition against these 2021 IPR scenarios.

IPR Policy Gap Analysis

At COP27, IPR launched the new IPR Policy Gap Analysis assessing total progress to date against the Inevitable Policy Response scenarios in the years preceding the 2025 ratchet. It builds upon the 2022 Quarterly Forecast Trackers and provides a sector by sector assessment of policy developments across the G20+ economies.


Q1 2022 Quarterly Forecast Tracker



Q2 2022 Quarterly Forecast Tracker



Q3 2022 Quarterly Forecast Tracker


IPR and Policy Scenarios

Latest Posts


Food & Land Systems – The Secret Weapon in the War on Climate Change


Clean Energy is not enough to get the world to 1.5C. Mass Reforestation and Linking Agriculture with Carbon Pricing are critical to emissions reduction.


A Below 2C Outcome? Possible - But 1.5 Deg? Not yet


Pete Betts, Former Lead Negotiator on Climate for the EU and UK, and Senior Advisor to IPR reflects on the post Glasgow outlook



To better understand how the Inevitable Policy Response could be of use to your and your investment team, please get in touch.
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