The Inevitable Policy Response to climate change

What makes IPR distinct from other scenarios:

IPR scenarios are designed to provide a market view around which financial institutions can base their central expectations. IPR is driven by a detailed assessment of likely policy trajectories in the short and long term, grounded in transparent views on major policy areas across all major countries/regions.

This in contrast to ‘hypothetical’ scenarios based on a temperature constraint or on assuming stated commitments are met.
IPR is transparent about the policy expectations so that financial institutions can understand the specific views that drive the scenarios.
IPR takes into account critical technology and market forces that facilitate policy shifts and that are accelerated by policy shifts.
As a result of this, IPR also provides a more realistic short-term trajectory and a well-grounded view of the shape of the transition over time.

What does IPR produce ?

The most extensive set of publicly available scenarios and underlying investor value drivers. This enables financial institutions to assess the risks and opportunities across the major sectors impacted by climate transition.

It also enables financial institutions to assess with greater granularity decisions about climate risk management and net zero alignment.

Energy, systems and land use

Apart from energy systems much of the detailed scenario analysis is related to food and land-use systems. IPR looks at the land-use related transition more thoroughly than other scenarios, including the extent of possible dietary shifts, the development of bioenergy, and the emergence of nature-based solutions (NBS).

Investor Value

By providing both the Forecast Policy Scenario (FPS), our most likely scenario and the Required Policy Scenario (RPS) our 1.5-degree scenario, IPR enables financial institutions to consistently assess:

a forecast scenario for a risk and return central case (FPS)
a full 1.5-degree net zero pathway (RPS) that:
- investors could choose to align to, and
- can be used as a stress test

Sign up for an investor briefing:

Find out how we can help you navigate climate risk IPR investor brief: Asset Managers IPR investor brief: Asset Owners

“This is a flagship project for the PRI, I urge all signatories to assess the implications of the Inevitable Policy Response for their portfolios and act now to protect and enhance value”

- Fiona Reynolds, former CEO, PRI

Quarterly Forecast Tracker

Building on the October 2021 IPR 1.8C Forecast Policy Scenario ( FPS ) and 1.5 degree Required Policy Scenario ( RPS) policy suite, in 2022 IPR is issuing Quarterly Forecast Trackers (QFTs) assessing climate policy, technology and land use developments and acceleration or deceleration in policy ambition against these 2021 IPR scenarios.

IPR Policy Gap Analysis

At COP27, IPR launched the new IPR Policy Gap Analysis assessing total progress to date against the Inevitable Policy Response scenarios in the years preceding the 2025 ratchet. It builds upon the 2022 Quarterly Forecast Trackers and provides a sector by sector assessment of policy developments across the G20+ economies.

The Inevitable Policy Response: 2022 Quarterly Forecast Trackers

2022-11-15T05:00:00+00:00

IPR 2022 Policy Gap Analysis

2022-11-16T15:01:00+00:00

Q1 2022 Quarterly Forecast Tracker

2022-04-27T05:00:00+01:00

Q2 2022 Quarterly Forecast Tracker

2022-06-30T07:02:00+01:00

Q3 2022 Quarterly Forecast Tracker

2022-10-04T06:11:00+01:00

IPR and Policy Scenarios

What is the Inevitable Policy Response?
Financial markets today have not adequately priced-in the likely near-term policy response to climate change. The Inevitable Policy Response (IPR) is a pioneering project which aims to prepare investors for the associated portfolio risks.
The Inevitable Policy Response 2021: Policy Forecasts
The IPR 2021 policy forecast is a thoroughly revised and updated set of policy forecasts, reflecting further detailed research on current and proposed policies, with input from global policy experts. The policy forecasts were updated in October 2021 to reflect developments between March 2021 to COP 26 and form the ...
The Inevitable Policy Response 2021: Forecast Policy Scenario and 1.5C Required Policy Scenario
New 2021 Forecast Policy Scenario from IPR shows rapid policy acceleration by 2025 would bring ‘below 2C’ Paris Agreement within reach

Supporting Key Documents

IPR Scenario Descriptions

Energy & Land 2021 Summary

Emissions 2021 Summary

FPS 2021 Detail Land

FPS 2021 Detail Energy

RPS 2021 Detail Land

RPS 2021 Detail Energy

IPR Value Driver Database guide

IPR FPS 2021 Value Drivers Database

IPR 1.5°C RPS 2021 Value Drivers Database

1.8C FPS 2021 Macroeconomic Results

1.8C FPS Macroeconomic databook

1.5C RPS 2021 Macroeconomic Results

1.5C RPS 2021 Macroeconomic databook

IPR Supply Chain Analysis

IPR Supply Chain Analysis Value drivers

Latest Posts

IPR Supply Chain Analysis for tropical soft commodities
2022-10-26T08:21:00+01:00
The new IPR supply chain analysis enables better climate risk analysis of tropical commodity supply chains by estimating value drivers and linking those to company exposure.
The US discovers its climate policy: A holistic assessment & implications
2022-10-04T06:10:00+01:00
IPR has previously forecast that the US NDC would be achieved by 2030 and additionally, that the US will reach net zero by 2050.
Can Lula save the Amazon? A Brazil Policy Analysis
2022-06-30T06:18:00+01:00
The Amazon is a hotspot of global deforestation. Critically, illegal activities have been a key driver. Addressing this must be a primary focus in any attempt to end deforestation. The outcome of the October elections in Brazil at both the presidential and congressional levels are a pivotal moment. This analysis ...
Global Carbon Pricing: Assessing the potential of the EU CBAM and Climate Clubs
2022-05-31T06:34:00+01:00
This short paper by Brian Hensley and Marie Louise Gammelgård-Larsen at Kaya Advisory, a specialist climate policy consultancy, has been commissioned by the Inevitable Policy Response (IPR). It assesses the state of global carbon pricing, evolving policies around the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and concepts such as Climate ...
The Just Transition: Shaping the delivery of the Inevitable Policy Response
2022-04-11T07:15:00+01:00
Professor Nick Robins analyses the growing influence of just transition on climate policy across civil society, business and finance and outlines its emergence as key factor shaping how Inevitable Policy Response (IPR) global forecasts play out on carbon pricing, clean energy, fossil fuel phase down, EVs, agriculture and land use.
Ukraine War: The new geo-politics of energy and implications for climate policy
2022-03-31T07:12:00+01:00
This short paper by Kaya, a specialist climate policy consultancy, has been commissioned by the Inevitable Policy Response (IPR). It assesses the initial implications for climate policy as a result of Russia’s invasion and war in Ukraine.
IPR and PACTA - The new Transition Disruption Metric
2021-12-08T08:00:00+00:00
The Transition Disruption Metric (TDM) is based in the IPR 2021 Forecast Policy Scenario (FPS) scenario developed by IPR
An investor guide to negative emission technologies and the importance of land use
2020-10-26T08:30:00+00:00
As momentum towards net zero rises around the world, this report provides much needed transparency on the importance of land use and the role of Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) in the transition to net zero.
Pathways to net zero: scenario architecture for strategic resilience testing and planning
2020-07-02T07:38:00+01:00
Climate change poses a systemic risk to institutional investors. All portfolios are exposed to it, yet the impacts will be uneven across asset classes, sectors and geographies.
The inevitable water finance response: investor risks and opportunities
2020-06-11T09:00:00+01:00
Investors are not managing existing water risk, let alone taking advantage of upside opportunities through better water-related investment. Forward-looking investors will develop investment channels for sustainable and productive water management and fundamentally re-align how they understand water risks.

VIEW IPR ARCHIVE »

Food & Land Systems – The Secret Weapon in the War on Climate Change

2022-03-15T16:15:00+00:00

Clean Energy is not enough to get the world to 1.5C. Mass Reforestation and Linking Agriculture with Carbon Pricing are critical to emissions reduction.

A Below 2C Outcome? Possible - But 1.5 Deg? Not yet

2021-12-15T11:14:00+00:00

Pete Betts, Former Lead Negotiator on Climate for the EU and UK, and Senior Advisor to IPR reflects on the post Glasgow outlook

Blog

The policy challenge for the inevitable response to the climate transition
2021-11-12T11:48:00+00:00
By Mark Fulton, Project Director - Inevitable Policy Response (IPR) & Founder - Energy Transition Advisers
The logic for Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms
2021-06-24T12:40:00+01:00
By Mark Fulton, Programme Director, Inevitable Policy Response
Inevitable Policy Response: Biden Climate Leaders Summit confirms momentum
2021-04-27T14:59:00+01:00
By Mark Fulton, Founder, Energy Transition Advisors and Eric Ling, Engagement Manager, Vivid Economics
Shifting horizons: from net-zero ambitions to near-term climate action
2021-04-27T11:30:00+01:00
Fiona Reynolds, CEO, Principles for Responsible Investment
Climate policy - the coming acceleration
2021-03-30T10:39:00+01:00
By Mark Fulton, founding partner at Energy Transition Advisors, The Inevitable Policy Response Project Lead‎ and Advisor to the PRI
The Inevitable Policy Response under Biden’s climate plan – the stage is set
2020-11-18T09:45:00+00:00
By Jason Eis, Executive Director, Vivid Economics, Mark Fulton, Founder, Energy Transition Advisers (ETA), Eric Ling, Engagement Manager, Vivid Economics

Webinars

PRI COP27 Investor Event with IPR: Live from Sharm El-Sheikh
2022-11-15T08:28:00+00:00
With COP27 as the backdrop, this webinar from Sharm El-Sheikh will assess the biggest developments of the conference so far.
IPR Quarterly Forecast Tracker - global climate policy, trends & technology
2022-10-04T13:57:00+01:00
This webinar provides PRI signatories with the latest insights from the Inevitable Policy Response (IPR) on the long-term implications of climate and energy policy developments this quarter, including a focus on the United States.
IPR Quarterly Forecast Tracker - global climate policy, trends & technology
2022-06-30T13:08:00+01:00
In the second of a new 2022 quarterly webinar series, IPR, PRI and panellists will review long term implications for PRI signatories on the biggest developments each quarter, using the 2021 FPS as a baseline to measure progress.
IPR Quarterly Forecast Tracker (QFT) Global Trends & Technology Briefings
2022-04-27T07:48:00+01:00
In the first of a new 2022 quarterly webinar series, IPR, PRI and panellists will review the implications for signatories on the biggest developments each quarter, using the 2021 FPS as a baseline to measure progress.
2021 Forecast Policy Scenario and launch of the Value Drivers Database Americas
2021-12-08T07:24:00+00:00
This webinar will see the launch of the Detailed FPS and RPS Energy & Land System Results and Value Drivers for investors. This will be an opportunity for North and South America based signatories to engage on underlying value drivers and investment implications in IPR Forecasts out to 2025 and ...
 2021 气候政策预期情景及对投资者的影响-亚太区研讨会 (IPR Forecast Policy Scenario 2021 Implications for Investors – APAC)
2021-12-03T20:10:00+00:00
This webinar will explore implications for investors and provide an opportunity for Asia-Pacific based signatories to engage on IPR Forecasts out to 2025 and 2030. Presented by Julian Poulter, IPR Head of Investor Relations with PRI staff and partners.
IPR Forecast Policy Scenario 2021 - Implications for Investors – APAC
2021-12-03T07:14:00+00:00
This webinar will explore implications for investors and provide an opportunity for Asia-Pacific based signatories to engage on IPR Forecasts out to 2025 and 2030. Presented by Julian Poulter, IPR Head of Investor Relations with PRI staff and partners.
Inevitable Policy Response: deep dive on the Forecast Policy Scenario 2021 UK/EU
2021-11-22T13:19:00+00:00
This webinar will provide a deep dive opportunity for UK and EU based signatories to engage on FPS, RPS and investment implications in IPR Forecasts out to 2025 and 2030. Presented by Julian Poulter, IPR Head of Investor Relations with PRI staff and partners.
PRI Digital Conference - Breakout session: The Inevitable Policy Response
2021-11-17T11:10:00+00:00
This session will provide investors with an initial presentation of IPR’s newly-launched Policy Scenario reports and highlights. The focus will be on both macro and regional outlooks including energy and land use, providing signatories with opportunities for detailed review of IPR scenarios, value drivers and investment implications.
PRI COP26 Investor Event with IPR: Live from Glasgow
2021-11-09T11:45:00+00:00
With COP26 as the backdrop, this live from Glasgow webinar will assess the biggest outcomes of Week 1 and what Week 2 holds. Looking ahead to the Emissions Gap, the latest Inevitable Policy Response forecasts will be highlighted as part of the way forward in coming years. Join PRI CEOFiona ...
The Inevitable Policy Response 2021: Forecast Policies
2021-03-18T14:26:00+00:00
During this webinar the PRI give an update on The Inevitable Policy Response, a pioneering project commissioned by the PRI.
US Climate Policy in 2021: What Investors Need to Know
2020-12-02T12:52:00+00:00
The likelihood of a sweeping U.S. climate policy being implemented has increased considerably in recent months. A wide range of proposals has been floated, and the Biden campaign itself laid out a comprehensive plan to tackle carbon emissions and climate resilience through a variety of statutory, regulatory and fiscal approaches.
The Inevitable Policy Response: preparing investors for an abrupt transition
2020-01-09T12:27:00+00:00
A forceful policy response to climate change within the near term is not priced into today’s markets. Yet it is inevitable that governments will be forced to act more decisively than they have so far, leaving investor portfolios exposed to significant risk.