Next stage in drive to develop forecasts for the climate transition
LONDON: 08/07/2021: 12:00 AM BST: Seven major financial institutions have joined the Inevitable Policy Response (IPR) as strategic partners, enhancing the consortium’s depth. BlackRock, BNP Paribas Asset Management, Fitch Ratings, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, New Forests, Nuveen and Robeco will provide support to IPR’s program. This includes an updated 2021 Forecast Policy Update (FPS) reflecting expected policy accelerations, particularly up to 2025 & 2030, a new 1.5C Required Policy Scenario (RPS) and support for IPR in its ongoing development of an international reference standard for investors.
The IPR was commissioned by the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) and is a significant component in PRI investor engagement around climate driven impacts on asset values, asset allocation and capital flows.
Led by Vivid Economics and Energy Transition Advisers (ETA), IPR seeks to provide investors with a forward assessment of acceleration in global policy on climate, including realistic input to and output from, the energy and land use climate transition. It engages deeply with asset owners and managers, with 178 investors using IPR to inform their PRI TCFD reporting.
Since launch in 2018, IPR’s thesis of an accelerating climate policy transition and associated impacts has been borne out by actual policy developments and reflected in financial markets.
A range of international research partners contribute to and inform IPR forecasts including the PRI, 2 Degrees Investing Initiative (2DII) & Carbon Tracker Initiative. Two leading green and sustainable finance NGOs, the Climate Bonds Initiative and Planet Tracker, recently joined the IPR research consortium.
Paul Bodnar, Global Head of Sustainable Investing, BlackRock:
“Governmental and corporate responses to climate change are accelerating, but the pace of action is lagging behind the level of ambition. The uncertain pace of the net-zero transition poses important challenges for investors as we assess associated risk, opportunity, and volatility. We are delighted to join IPR in this effort to develop scenarios that will help our clients and stakeholders better understand how this transformation will unfold in practice for sectors such as energy supply, heavy industry, transport, and land use.”
Jane Ambachtsheer, Global Head of Sustainability, BNP Paribas Asset Management:
“As the impact of climate change continues to mount, there is a need to accelerate collaboration to deepen the investment industry’s understanding of climate-related risks and opportunities. The next phase of the IPR work will support our collective push towards achieving the Paris Agreement – by providing insightful scenarios and enabling investor policy support to accelerate their implementation.”
Alex Griffiths, Managing Director, Head of Corporate Ratings, Fitch Ratings:
“The investors we serve are increasingly trying to understand the long-term implications of the carbon transition on their portfolios. We adopted the FPS as the core scenario for our long term ESG Vulnerability Scores because it is built around the policies which will drive the carbon transition. This is key to allowing us to meaningfully assess the relative risk to sectors and entities.”
Margaret Anadu, Global Head of Sustainability and Impact, Goldman Sachs Asset Management:
“Developing climate scenarios useful for asset managers is something we can best do together as an industry. The IPR framework gives us what we need: more granular outputs across transition-critical industries, an open-source framework, and narratives based on both what’s ambitious and what’s likely. We’re pleased to join IPR as a partner to help solve problems across investment portfolios for our clients.”
Radha Kuppalli,Managing Director, Impact & Advocacy, New Forests AM:
“New Forests looks forward to working with other investors in continuing to make the IPR a valuable tool for asset owners. The IPR provides much needed focus on how climate-positive land use and nature-based climate solutions, alongside clean energy, will enable the transition to a sustainable future. We see investment in land management making a substantial contribution to achieving net zero commitments and the SDG’s, including conservation and restoration of ecosystems, sustainable management of forestry and agriculture, and the use of sustainable, renewable materials in the emerging circular bio-economy.”
Jose Minaya, CEO, Nuveen:
“Understanding the policy and regulatory drivers of the global climate transition is an essential component of managing climate risk and opportunity in investment portfolios. What IPR offers is a unique perspective and valuable insights on the growing responses of policymakers to these issues. Contributing to IPR is one of the ways that we at Nuveen can stay at the forefront of climate risk management and ensure greater transparency through broader access to leading climate transition data.”
Carola van Lamoen, Head of Sustainable Investing, Robeco:
“Inevitably, the future will be decarbonized. While the direction of travel is clear, the road will be bumpy. When looking at carbon emission data, we’re only using our rear-view mirror to drive the road. This is where IPR comes in. Providing a realistic forward-looking outlook, IPR supports investors to prepare their portfolios for a low-carbon future. Robeco is proud to contribute as a strategic partner by harnessing IPR as a planning tool for investors.”
Mark Fulton,Programme Director, IPR:
“We are delighted to welcome our first strategic partners into the IPR programme. We look forward to further providing investment markets and finance stakeholders with the insights they need to create a realistic base case for portfolio construction and engagement and take stock of the further requirements for a 1.5C outcome.”
Fiona Reynolds, CEO, Principles for Responsible Investment:
“IPR forecasts are invaluable for investors looking at immediate and realistic pathways to 2030 targets and then Net Zero. The coming IPR 1.5 report will present significant policy challenges. It will go before PRI signatories and COP 26 policy makers, adding new perspectives and a public good factor to financial sector responses on climate, resilience and emissions reduction.”
For more information:
Mark Fulton
Programme Director
Inevitable Policy Response
+61 (0) 404 100 271
Andrew Whiley
Communications Manager
Inevitable Policy Response
+44 (0) 7914 159 838
About Inevitable Policy Response (IPR): The IPR was commissioned by the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) in 2018 and is amongst international investor based initiatives supported by the PRI. IPR is led by Vivid Economics and Energy Transition Advisors (ETA). Existing research consortium partners also include 2Degrees Investing Initiative & Carbon Tracker Initiative. The Climate Bonds Initiative and Planet Tracker joined as research partners in early June 2021.
IPR has been funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation through The Finance Hub which was created to advance sustainable finance, ClimateWorks Foundation and the KR Foundation. IPR receives in-kind support from the PRI.
IPR March 2021 Update: In March 2021 the IPR issued an Update of its core 2020 Forecast Policy Scenario (FPS). Available for download are Forecast Policy presentation, Climate Acceleration in the Context of the Paris Ratchet and an Investor Summary.
IPR Forward Program: In the second half of 2021 IPR will be releasing a full Forecast Policy Scenario (FPS) report out to 2030, including for the first time a new Required Policy Response (RRP) & +1.5 Degrees Scenario.
